Prediction Markets UK: A Beginner's Guide for 2026
Prediction markets are one of the most interesting financial instruments most people have never heard of. The basic idea is elegant: instead of guessing what will happen, you bet on it with real money — and the collective bets of thousands of traders produce a probability estimate that consistently outperforms polls, pundits, and media consensus. During the 2024 US Presidential election, Polymarket — the largest prediction market — was calling a Trump victory with 65–70% probability for weeks before the mainstream media shifted their coverage. The market was right. It nearly always is, eventually, because people with money on the line are incentivised to be honest in a way that talking heads aren’t. ...